Reading the signs in UK’s COVID-19 data

As lockdown restrictions are easily relaxed in the UK, it’s worth checking what the numbers tell us in early June 2020.

We know there have not been enough tests to find all COVID-19 cases. This makes analysis uncertain, but it’s generally accepted that the “confirmed” cases are just the tip of the iceberg, so I’m assuming an “estimated” (but more realistic) number which is 4 times bigger.

When it comes to deaths, the number is likely more accurate, and I’ve taken the official numbers available from https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.

Even with higher unconfirmed cases of 1,110,952 the number of people that have been infected in the UK is just 1.7%.

Further still, figuring out the mortality rate is tricky. With different means of testing the rates vary greatly between countries. On the premise discussed so far, it comes lower than many official figures at 3.5%. (This is for the overall population and we’ve heard that different groups are more exposed then others.)

Over the last three month period, the risk of death becomes 1 in 2,000. Assuming the situation improves over the whole year we may be looking at 1 in 1,000. This is the same as heart disease risk every year in the UK!

The restrictions put in place have of course made a significant difference. So if we look at the numbers above we can see where we are now and were we’re likely to go from here.

Same as restrictions have dropped the numbers, relaxing them has the real danger of bringing new daily cases up again. I am wary of the fact that (as some models predicted) a second wave is likely around October time.

Let’s hope not, but until then stay safe!